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By David Hollerith and Jennifer Schonberger
The Senate Banking Committee is expected to vote through a landmark crypto bill on Thursday, bringing the digital asset world one step closer to cementing its legal standing in mainstream finance.
The legislation is expected to pass the 24-member Republican-led committee, with all Republicans voting the bill forward, according to a person familiar with the deliberations.
But the real test comes from the posture of key Democratic lawmakers. What they say on unresolved issues, including illicit finance and ethics-related matters, will affect how quickly the bill can move to a full Senate vote before an August deadline. The bill will need 60 votes to pass the Senate, where Republicans hold 53 seats.
Known as the “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act” or the Clarity Act, the bill sets basic legal standards for how regulators will divvy up oversight of digital assets. It also dictates how financial institutions, including major banks, can conduct payment, lending, custody, and trading business.
For the crypto industry, the vote is the first of three major steps needed to send the legislation to President Trump’s desk ahead of midterm elections. If it misses that timeline, the package may potentially face stiffer odds in a less crypto-friendly Congress.
Washington insiders see the bill’s “drop-dead deadline” for passing in the current Congress as before August, according to Cody Carbone, CEO for crypto advocacy group the Digital Chamber. He added he’s still optimistic the bill can pass by then.
Traders on prediction platform Polymarket give the bill 62% odds of passing before the end of the year, up from 46% in late April but down slightly from 65% at the beginning of 2026.
Once the bill clears Thursday’s vote, it would still need to be reconciled with a similar draft passed in the Senate Agriculture Committee. It would then need to pass the full Senate vote before moving to the House.
TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg said in a Wednesday note that full vote on the Senate floor “is in play but not the expected outcome,” giving it a one-in-three chance of success.
Since the Senate Banking Committee released the latest version of the bill late Monday, lawmakers have filed 30 related amendments requests to strengthen anti-money laundering requirements and other sanctions matters. Another 12 requests were filed regarding ethics.
Those amendments come as the Iran conflict has brought a new spotlight on crypto. An advisory notice issued earlier this week from the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FINCEN) flagged crypto platforms and stablecoins as a crucial avenue for Iran to launder illicit oil proceeds.
Key lawmakers worry the current bill doesn’t have a strong enough provision to prevent the president from profiting off of crypto. There’s also concern that it weakens national security and makes it easy for crypto and non-crypto companies to put their tokens on the blockchain, weakening protections for pension investors.
Democratic Senators Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland, Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, Andy Kim of New Jersey, and Mark Warner of Virginia are seen as key players in those discussions.
Senators Ruben Gallego and Adam Schiff are leading discussions with the White House to seek guardrails restricting conflicts of interest by elected officials, according to another person familiar with the deliberations. However, it’s unclear if Trump is for the ethics provision and whether Republicans will actually ensure the provision passes the House and Senate. Considering the uncertainty, it’s probable that the bill would trend towards a weak provision.
“It's almost all but guaranteed” that some ethics provision will be added before the full Senate vote, said the Digital Chamber’s Carbone.
A final wild card could be America’s banks. Earlier this month, senators shared new language regarding paying out interest on stablecoin balances. Trade groups representing banks across the country are still not satisfied and have said the language leaves room for workarounds and loopholes.
That could mean the banks push hard for more changes ahead of the full Senate vote, according to a person familiar with the matter. There’s a feeling that banks could appeal to other members outside the Senate Banking Committee who are supportive of community banks. But ultimately, it’s unlikely any changes will be made to the stablecoin yield payouts rule, according to the source.
David Hollerith covers the financial sector, ranging from the country's biggest banks to regional lenders, private equity firms, and the cryptocurrency space.
Jennifer Schonberger is a veteran financial journalist covering markets, the economy, and investing. At Yahoo Finance she covers the Federal Reserve, Congress, the White House, the Treasury, the SEC, the economy, cryptocurrencies, and the intersection of Washington policy with finance. Follow her on X @Jenniferisms and on Instagram.